Remember last year and the school board election that brought out a record number of voters (compared to recent years)? This year's campaign is the antithesis. We could see a record low turnout.
From what I can tell I would not be surprised if only 2 of the 9 candidates send out a direct mail campaign piece and only 3, maybe 4, have the money for yard signs. If they haven't raised the money by now, it's too late to order signs and almost too late to get a mailer to the printer. It takes two weeks to have yard signs prepared and almost as much time to prepare direct mailers, get them to the printer and then to the direct mail specialists. I doubt any of the challengers other than Buckton know this.
So what does this all mean? First, this is an incumbents' election (Boesen, Caldwell-Johnson, and Link). They know what needs to be done. They know where the votes are. Buckton probably does too. Name ID will be key.
Second, there are no issues driving people to the polls. From what I can tell from watching the candidate interviews with the Register's editorial board (available on line) there is not a dime's worth of difference in the viewpoints of the candidates. None of the challengers has separated herself or himself from the field, taken a position that distinguishes them from the others. Again, Buckton has a command of the issues that none of the others have, and that will show through to anyone paying attention. Add to that her support in the Hoover area and she is running as a quasi-incumbent.
Third, the Revenue Purpose Statement that is also on the ballot has not generated any opposition. All of the candidates support it. And why not, it simply asks the voters to give Des Moines its share of the sales tax dollars that will be collected state-wide in any event.
The bottom line is the incumbents plus Buckton should win. This is shaping up to be a return to the mean for school board elections, a return to those pre-2001 years before incumbents started to lose, campaign chests were small, and incumbents routinely elected.
I'll have more to say about the candidates later about the candidates, in addition to Buckton a couple of the challengers merit at least consideration.
Comments